Week 7

DISCLAIMER: After being so consistently bad in recent weeks, I hereby reverse all of my picks this week. This way, when I'm wrong about almost all of them, I can still say I was right about almost all of them. It's still like predicting the future: just using prudent judgment about my poor judgment, right?

ATLANTA -3.5 over Cincinnati: Terrell Owens has been on fire, and Carson Palmer uses him as the human torch to light up the Falcons secondary which ranks 25th in the NFL in pass yards allowed, igniting Thomas Decoud, William Moore, Brent Grimes, and Chris Owens. Unfortunately this tactic backfires when Owens comes back to the huddle and the entire Bengals offense is caught in the conflagration.

Pittsburgh -3 over MIAMI: James Harrison comes out of the world’s briefest retirement to crack some heads this week in Miami. The Dolphins players counter his tactic by wearing extra large cork-filled helmets. As a halftime readjustment, wonder-Coach Mike Tomlin provides Harrison with a special helmet of his own to counter the helmets of the Dolphins players, who are rendered helpless, in the absence of rules applying to Harrison during games.

BALTIMORE -13 over Buffalo: Factoid: Ryan Fitzpatrick has thrown 7 TDs and 2 INTs; Joe Flacco has thrown 7 TDs and 6 INTs. Factoid²: the Bills’ top two rushers average 4.4 YPC and 5 YPC, while the Ravens’ both average under 4. So are the winless Bills (who are 14-7 coming out of the bye week) going to defeat the 4-2 Ravens? Nah. Are they even going to keep it close? Well, let’s put it this way: the Bills are losing by an average of 15 points per game.

Jacksonville +9.5 over KANSAS CITY: The fans at Arrowhead have restored one of the best home-field advantages in football, which the Jaguars learn to their peril as boobie traps all over the field are sprung all afternoon. But the Chiefs didn’t bargain for one thing: the Jaguars home-field advantage is when they’re not at home. Gimme those 9.5 points.

NEW ORLEANS -13 over Cleveland: If the Browns are going to win this game, it will be a close one involving the Browns winning the turnover battle and Peyton Hillis-led drives that control the clock (the recipe long-since proven to stop Peyton Manning). But the Browns are not going to win and the Saints are going to go vertical all day long, causing the Browns to settle for fewer field goals and hence fewer points.

CHICAGO -3 over Washington: Not many Bears in Maryland, and the Potomac River Basin Indigenous Peoples (credit: Gregg Easterbrook) are shocked to find that their defenses are useless against the powerful jaws of these bloodthirsty creatures. McNabb is 4-1 playing in his hometown Chicago, but it helps to have a defense that’s not the worst in the league (32nd in yards allowed).

San Francisco -3 over CAROLINA: Ok San Fran: you have our attention. Now what are you going to do with it? Meanwhile, it didn’t take long in Carolina to discover the latest Domer bust. We almost feel bad for Notre Dame, as if it's losing its identity…

Saint Loius +3 over TAMPA BAY: The Rams are our favorite sleeper team to win the NFC West with a record of .500 or less! Meanwhile Sam Bradford is not playing like a rookie quarterback, leading the Rams to a 3-3 record after last year’s worst-overall 1-15. This could be a nice showcase of two up-and-coming young QBs.

TENNESSEE -3 over Philadelphia: The Tennessee Titans, who look more and more like the Pittsburgh Steelers (used to look), are getting the perfect matchup this week: an Eagles squad with clipped wings and uncertainty at the QB position.

SEATTLE -6.5 over Arizona: The Cardinals have won 12 of 14 against division opponents. 11 of those with Kurt Warner as the quarterback. Meanwhile, the Great(est) Max Hall has yet to throw a TD.

New England +2.5 over SAN DIEGO: Um...apparently Deion Branch is Randy Moss after all (9 catches for 98 yards and a TD in his first game back with NE). Exercising every competitive advantage, Bill Belichick replaces the Chargers’ sideline with European-style outlets.

Oakland +8 at DENVER: Didn’t these guys just play each other? Anyway, the other West division also features a game with massive playoff implications. Between teams that are 2-4. But Kyle Orton led the league in passing yards through the first quarter (and is currently #2)! Who’s number 1? Philip Rivers! The combined records of their teams: 2-8. Meanwhile the pundits continue to drone their mantra that in today’s NFL you can’t win with rushing and good D (as the Jets and Ravens are doing right now), you gotta chuck it (as the Broncos and Chargers are doing right now).

Factoid: repeating something over and over again does not make it true; it just feels that way (remember how ridiculous the very concept of Fatheads were when we first started hearing about them?).

GREEN BAY -2.5 over Minnesota: This is going to be one heck of a game, with Favre-Rodgers, division championship implications, the rivalry, the fact that neither of these teams plays for a city. I’ll take hometown by a field goal, and thank the bookies for only giving Minny 2.5 instead of 3.

NY Giants +3 over DALLAS: The red-hot Giants (with points!) go to Dallas to bring into clearer focus an NFC Championship game between Big Blue and the Falcons.