Week 15

Another .500 week last week (8 - 8); doesn’t help, but doesn’t hurt. In the biggest surprise of the week, we found out that the only person left in the universe who could possibly be sympathetic to Brett Favre at this point is God himself. Unfortunately for Brett Favre, our first parents introduced us to sin and death, so not even divine intervention could keep his castle made of sand from falling in the sea eventually.

Other evidence that as fans we lavish too much attention on the NFL and, combined with the quickness and geographical comprehensiveness of the media, exert too much influence on these exceedingly complex businesses we call our teams:

• Kyle Orton, on pace to break Dan Marino's record for most passing yards in a season, will be benched this week for supposedly-not-NFL-worthy Tim Tebow.

• Three headcoaches (Brad Childress, Wade Phillips, and Josh McDaniels) have already been fired mid-season…

• …and in two of those cases, the team instantly became a winner.

• At least three others, Super Bowl runner-up John Fox, Eric Mangini, who has improved his team's record in each of his two seasons, and Mike Singletary, whose 49ers have a shot at winning their division, are the subject of "hot seat" pulp.

• I'm writing this column!

Home teams in caps!

SAN DIEGO -9.5 over San Francisco: Picked last night, in-house, as usual. But last week I whiffed on the Thursday night game, so my credibility goes up a little. That and my recent run of half a dozen weeks of .500 or better. Usually much better. V-Jax is back!

This man is probably available in your fantasy league as you head into your Super Bowl next weekend. Fish in a barrel. Thank me later.

ST LOUIS -1.5 over Kansas City: Unfortunately, it seems that Vegas has figured out my Rams, who were the first professional football team to play for Cleveland, apparently. And, of course, that means the old anti-rooting-interest rule is in effect here. But Matt Cassell's missing appendix told me that 0 - 10 Brodie Croyle is not the next Warren Moon or Troy Aikman (who started their careers at 0 - 10 and 0 - 11, respectively). SAMMIE!!

Houston +1.5 over TENNESSEE: Something tells me that the Texans are going to send the franchise that deserted Houston to the bottom of the division over Randy Moss's dead body. Fortunately for Houston, Randy Moss's dead body is precisely what the Titans will be deploying as their number one wide receiver Sunday.

Jacksonville +5 over INDIANAPOLIS: Thanks again, Colts, for letting us know. On a more positive note, the Jaguars have met every challenge thrown at them since Todd Bouman passed the baton back to David Garrard in Week 8 (when number 9 tossed 4 TDs against the Dallas Divas), winning against the spread in every single game since then (6 - 0). No worries here.

CAROLINA -2.5 over Arizona: As much as I loved picking Fordham Ram John Skelton to win his debut as an NFL quarterback last week, and as much as Carolina is 1 and freaking 12, this is Carolina's last winnable game of the season with games against Pittsburgh and Atlanta looming, and Jimmy Clausen's last chance to convince the Carolina brass not to draft one of the three or four QBs lining up to set four unlucky NFL franchises four more years back on their roads to recovery as they invest big money and high picks in the biggest 1st-round crap-shoot position in the NFL draft.

Also Arizona can probably lose out and not have to worry about not winning the NFC West at 4 - 12.

CINCINNATI -1 over Cleveland: In the last week I've watched this line go from 2.5 to 2 to 1.5 to 1. Oh well. As usual, here's why the Browns are going to win, and I'm not going to pick them (I had to last week because they still had a shot at the playoffs. Also they were playing Buffalo. Buffalo! Come on!):

Thank you, baby Jesus, for helping me not to fumble the ball five times in one game. And thank you for healing Colt's ankle so that the Browns fans of the world do not have to feel the physical effects of fear every time Jake drops back to pass. Amen.

Buffalo +5.5 over MIAMI: The Browns beat the Dolphins and the Bills beat the Browns so the Bills must be able to beat the Dolphins. It's that simple. Right?

(By this logic, the Pittsburgh Steelers can beat the New England Patriots and the New England Patriots can beat the Pittsburgh Steelers. Sounds about right)

Ok, you want a better reason? Starts with Chad, rhymes with We're-drafting-a-QB-in-the-Spring-so-we-don't-have-to-suffer-through-another-season-of-Henne.

Philadelphia +2.5 over NY GIANTS: Eli got to play against Minnesota last week, with his 4th-best rushing attack of Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw, both of whom went over 100 yards and 1 TD on 14 and 11 carries, respectively, and who average a combined 5.3 yards per carry, and he STILL threw more INTs (2) than TDs (1).

Add to that that he got to play in his opponents rivals' stadium (what kind of cruel devilry subverts an act of God and at the same time contrives a new and untold torture for the most tortured fan base of the 2010 season by giving one of its home games to the fans of its arch rivals to root against its team?)! Speaking of tortured fan bases, now rumors are picking up traction that the nation's second-largest television market has a stadium that's not broken for the Vikings to play in.

It's beginning to look a lot like Christmas! Word is, you can get a free dinner for shoveling out the Metrodome these days.

DALLAS -7 over Washington: I get it, Coach Shanahan. At 5 - 8, you're mathematically eliminated from playoff contention and you want to see what you've got in your young guys. But doesn't it feel at least a little bit wrong to bench your best offensive player for Cowboys and Indians week?

TAMPA BAY -5.5 over Detroit: What on earth is going on in the NFC South? It's the new NFC East. I guess with Carolina and the NFC West gobbling up all the losses, there just aren't enough to go around anymore. Don't worry, Detroit, Josh Freeman saved one for you this week. For all those Thanksgiving meals you've made so memorable.

New Orleans +1.5 over BALTIMORE: I'm actually thinking Drew Brees, recently named the Associate Press Male Athlete of the Year, is going to pick apart Baltimore's suspect secondary (I know it was Matt Schaub, but they did give up 393 yards last week), and that Ravens are due for another loss this week (3 - 2 since the bye with a loss last week).

Kinda surprised they're favored.

Atlanta -6 over SEATTLE: I could have sworn this line was higher the other day. With New Orleans at home next week, some might call this a "trap" game. I call it this year's Super Bowl losers against an NFC West team.

PITTSBURGH -6 over NY Jets: Speaking of the Super Bowl, ladies and gentlemen, your 2010–2011 Super Bowl Champion Pittsburgh Steelers.

Do we really have to keep talking about the New York Jets? Am I the only one who's sick of all the non-football-related gossip and drama that this team has manufactured for itself all season long, starting with that ridiculous HBO show? As if the New York Post needed help finding scandals to plaster on their oversized front-page spreads.

OAKLAND -7 over Denver: Tim Tebow is starting this week!

Normally, I wouldn't pick Oakland to beat anybody by more than a touchdown. But who on earth can predict what these Oakland Raiders are going to do from one week to the next?

So far, they've lost to Tennessee, Arizona, Houston, San Francisco, and Miami, a combined record of 26 - 40, by a combined score of 86 - 143 (17.2 - 28.6), and beaten San Diego (twice), Kansas City, and Denver, for a 4 - 0 division record…

…and they're 6 - 7 and in third place in the division. Huh?

At any rate, in the last meeting between these two teams, Oakland blew out Denver at home, 59 - 14, and has only gotten better since then (4 - 2 in the interval).

(closing my eyes as I extend my finger randomly toward the screen…)

NEW ENGLAND -14 over Green Bay: Aaron Rodgers, who last year led my fantasy team to the Super Bowl and to the playoffs this year, will not play this week. Will someone please explain to me why NFL.com will not let me sub him out to the bench for a game that doesn't start for TWO MORE FREAKING DAYS WHEN THE FANTASY PLAYOFFS ARE THIS WEEK AND I HAVE THE NUMBER ONE SEED IN MY LEAGUE?!?!

Ok, I'm done. Thanks.

Chicago -6.5 over MINNESOTA: Sorry, Minnesota, I know that Bill Simmons always says that God hates Cleveland, but I think that when you can't decide whether Brett Favre has done more damage to your franchise by playing for your rival or by playing on your side, and when the last two years of professional football in Minnesota will be remembered for this…

Jets employee—in what capacity, we're not sure—Jenn Sterger

…and this…

The erstwhile Metrodome, now the MetroBowl.

…then maybe The Decision doesn't look so bad in hindsight anyway.

It could always be worse. Just remember: it always looks the darkest just before it goes pitch black.

Week 14

12 - 4 last week, and that’s after blowing the Tom Brady-over-Jets-minus-their-starting-safety pick AND talking myself out of picking the Browns with the old pick-against-the-rooting-interest rule. In other news, can we please stop praising the Minnesota Vikings and the Dallas Cowboys, who are a combined 5 - 1 since firing their head coaches? This is going to be hard to take, but listen carefully: teams don’t magically get better in the middle of the season just because you fire your coach.

If a 1 - 7 team suddenly goes 3 - 1 while averaging over 34 points per game, it’s because it was loaded with talented bums who refused to put forth effort until their coach was gone.

The 2 - 7 Minnesota Vikings are 2 - 0 since they decided to start playing football again, with a combined 55 points in the wins. More significantly, they held opponents to 13 and 14 points in the two games, after giving up a minimum of 24 points per game in the previous seven games.

You want more proof? Let’s see how the Denver Broncos, who just fired their head coach in-season, fare in the next four games.

Indianapolis -3.5 over TENNESSEE: Picked in-house as usual, and for once it wasn’t a win for me, which goes a long way toward my credibility in retroactively posting the Thursday night games on Friday evening.

Oakland +4 over Jacksonville: Here’s what’s gonna happen: the Raiders, who rushed for 251 yards last week against the best defense in the league (and 5th against the run, giving up 95.2 ypg), are coming 3,000 miles from sea to shining sea to shock a half-full EverBank field and all the residents of the Florida panhandle who get to watch the game on TV even though the game wasn’t sold out. Why? Because football is still better than re-running the Price is Right and the greedy NFL is looking at a blackout of all its games next year.

PITTSBURGH -8.5 over Cincinnati: I love this line. Cincinnati’s going to go into Pittsburgh, where Mike Straigh-outta-Compton Tomlin’s boys are playing with the unified spirit of bruthas. Word is on the streets, all y’all dogs get puffy jackets if you concuss an opponent. Reck-uh-nize!

Sad thing? This team gets to hoist the Lombardi trophy in two short months.

CHICAGO +3 over New England: Look, I know that Pat Kirwan’s breakdown of Tom Brady’s passing attack is unassailable (“He’s throwing balls at guys’ belt buckles—right between the bottom of the numbers and the belt buckle—how can you defend against that?!), I know that Tom Brady’s passing attack is, all incomprehensible comments aside, unstoppable, I know that the Patriots shut my mouth last week.

But, come on, that was the Jets. The team that needed overtime to beat the Detroit Lions and the Cleveland Browns (combined 7 - 17), not to mention got blanked at home by the Packers.

Alright, you know what? I don't have a good reason for picking the Bears here. Ok? You happy?

Cleveland +1 over BUFFALO: Here we go again, picking with the rooting interest. Definitely a sign that I’m in for a bad week. But even Bill Simmons, who is allergic to Jake Delhomme, this week wants the Browns, who still think they have a shot at the playoffs.

32nd-ranked run defense in a blizzard against Peyton Hillis and his bulldozer Lawrence Vickers. Any questions?

Next week: Colt McCoy returns to face the Cincinnati Bengals, fresh off a beating at the hands of the Pittsburgh Thugz? It gets better: the early line in that game is Bengals by 2.5!

MINNESOTA +3 over NY Giants: Normally, I would be happy to take these Giants over these Vikings at any venue, but I’ve got a feeling Eli’s due for another four turnover game, and Minnesota’s 4th-ranked rushing defense has kept opponents averaging 31 pass attempts per game—even though two of those same opponents never played catch-up.

Green Bay -6.5 over DETROIT: Alright, look. Aaron Rodgers is 5 - 0 against the Lions. You think he’s going to lose to them in December with a one-game deficit to make up in the division? When New England’s coming to Chicago?

You might say, “Yeah, but everybody’s 5 - 0 against the Lions!”

…and you would be right.

Atlanta -7 over CAROLINA: Seriously, Vegas? You can’t give Carolina more than seven this week? After spotting them 11 against the Browns?

Atlanta clinch the one-seed yet? No? Ok. Atlanta.

WASHINGTON +2 over Tampa Bay: Everyone’s talking like Tampa Bay lost any chance at winning the NFC South last weekend, and… wait? Tampa Bay actually did lose any chance at winning the NFC South last weekend! Probably not getting New Orleans’ or Green Bay’s playoff tickets either.

And Washington just fired Albert Haynesworth, which is kind of like firing your head coach, only your head coach usually doesn’t lie on his belly chewing grass while Michael Vick prances gracefully about like a gazelle. (On a related note, let's all bear in mind that it was against the corpse of Albert Haynesworth that Video game Vick put up those gaudy stats in that breakout game.)

But that's what happens when a child (or even a man, for that matter) gets a 100-million-dollar contract.

How many of us can pass through the eye of a needle with $100 million in our pockets?

NEW ORLEANS -9 over St Louis: Dang. No Sammie this week. After Drew Brees and Co. blow out the Rams (who have no pressure on them, as they play in a division that has a combined 19 wins—worst in the league), next week St Louis can get back to beating the spread, and beating their opponents: in that case, the Chiefs. A tough game, since KC may be able to clinch next week against a 6 - 7 Rams squad. Either way, should be a good week for the NFL’s best team against the spread.

Seattle +5 over SAN FRANCISCO: I almost accidentally wrote San Francisco first just now, automatically picking the favorite. Brain kicked in. Usually not a good sign, but this week the brain informs me that Johnnie Lynn, Mike Singletary’s assistant head coach, resigned yesterday for “personal reasons”. Read: to get an early start on the offseason job hunt.

Not a good sign, Coach Singletary.

Unfortunately, in today's NFL head coaches are evaluated as if they were players—on a weekly basis, by fans and media. In other words, as if students and their parents held the job security of college professors in their inexpert hands.

I'll be home in four weeks, honey!

Miami +5.5 over NY JETS: I know. It was just one game. The Jets are gonna be fine. After all, Rex Ryan and the Jests buried the game ball from Monday night’s debacle in Foxboro. Really, Rex? You buried the ball? Theatrics are all well and good, but you might want to address with your team how you’re going to stop QBs from going 21/29 for 326 yards, 4 TDs and no picks for a Rating of 148.9 (not a perfect rating, by the way; Brady did that the week before at Detroit: 158.3).

And no, you don’t get to play Chad Henne every week, so you’re actually going to have to think about maybe game-planning. Instead of jabbering to TV cameras all day long.

ARIZONA +5 over Denver: Wow. Arizona. At home. With points. And Fordham Ram John Skelton is under center!

On the Denver side of the ball, the Broncos will show us this week that, no, they’re not just a bunch of spoiled divas: they really just aren’t that good. One of their main problems was losing the best wide receiver on their roster. And their quarterback. But then, Kyle Orton could break Dan Marino’s record this year, so who knows?

Kansas City +7 over SAN DIEGO: I’m not saying Kansas City wins this game, but it’s do-or-die for the Chargers, and Kansas City can all but mark their calendars for a home game in January if they win this game. It’ll be close. KC prevailed in the first meeting between these teams (21 - 14), but that was a long time ago (9/13).

Philadelphia -3.5 over DALLAS: Video game Vick is coming to big D! In prime time! This is the week when the Dallas I–honor–my–contract–when–I–feel–like–it Cowboys finally stop getting inferior teams to beat up on and make all the pundits bob their heads at the ridiculous proposition that Wade Phillips was the sole reason for Dallas’s 1 - 7 start.

Good ol' brain.

I wish I could root for old Dallas. I really do. Wait: even more reason to pick against them! High five, brain! That was a close one.

Baltimore -3 over HOUSTON: Classic reverse-rooting-interest pick. The Browns need Baltimore to lose this game to keep their slim playoff hopes alive. Here we go, Houston, here we go!

Unfortunately, I can’t come up with a single reason why the Texans should win this game, since Ray Lewis still draws breath.

Week 13

I have to publicize the wife’s victory last week, albeit by a slim margin (9 - 7 to 8 - 8). While I didn’t make history last week, I didn’t squander my son’s college fund either, so I’m free to bet another day.

That day is today. Actually, that day is yesterday, when we picked the Thursday night game, in-house as usual, my poor wife being a sucker, also as usual, for her home town’s Texans, and me making use of the old rule: if I have a rooting interest, pick opposite.

I’ve gotten away from the good old rooting interest rule lately. This week will be a return, let’s hope, both to betting by the book, and booking a profit.

PHILADELPHIA -8.5 over Houston: See above. It’s not that I’m sold on the (over)reaction Vick’s gotten in Philadelphia and nationally for a couple of good games (OK: really, really good games, but still just a couple). It’s mainly that I have no faith in the Texans, especially not when Andre Johnson is feeding the trolls.

Just another day at work for millionaires Andre Johnson and Cortland Finnegan…

MINNESOTA -5.5 over Buffalo: Speaking of millionaires not being held to the same standards of professionalism the failing of which would get you and me fired… As a gambler, I love this line. As a football fan, I hate it. There’s no reason why the Minnesota Vikings and Dallas Cowboys should be supported or watched for the rest of the season, and Buffalo, on the other hand, continues to do what the Vikes and Boys only condescend to do when conditions are precisely to their liking: play football. Too bad Buffalo’s taking a knife into a gunfight. Thanks for voting to keep the Browns in Cleveland!

MIAMI -4.5 over Cleveland: Speaking of the Browns, I actually think, not only that Miami is not going to cover, but Cleveland is going to win as Jake Delhomme follows up his first full game of the season (a victory last week at the end of which I was hugging a complete stranger in the highest row of Cleveland Browns Stadium when John Kasay’s kick glanced harmlessly off the upright) with a respectable performance in which he continues to get the receivers involved, loosens up the box for Peyton Don’t-compare-me-to-Jim-Brown-and-Leroy-Kelly;-that’s-just-ridiculous…-OK-fine-I-guess-I-do-score-touchdowns-week-in-and-week-out-like-it’s-my-job-after-all Hillis, and kneels out the final seconds after a game-winning Joe Haden interception. But we’re going back to the book this week. So Miami.

Jacksonville +3 over TENNESSEE: Dear Jacksonville Jaguars fans (both of you), herewith my humble apology for implying that your team was playing out of its league when it took on Eli Manning’s Giants. I admit that you are at least as good as the quarterback with the second most turnovers in the NFL (Brett Favre by one). P. s. Who the hell is Rusty Smith?

KANSAS CITY -8.5 over Denver: Denver’s defensive issues continue as Matt Cassel, Dwayne Bowe, and the best average-yardage RB in the NFL play host. Jamaal Charles is still averaging over six yards per carry. SIX. And Kyle Orton is being talked about in the same sentence with Dan Marino, whose single-season passing yardage record could fall this year.

And yet the Chiefs are favored by two scores. Any questions?

[Cue to ESPN, where pundits are even now droning their mantra that you can’t win in this NFL without a pass-wacky offense.]

NY GIANTS -7 over Washington: The Giants have won four in a row against Washington. McNabb has won four in a row against New York… when he played for a good team. Pick: home team! Also, as a temporary Washingtonian, I follow the rules and pick against the home team rooting interest. Even with that obscene seven points. Wait…the boy was born in New York. Am I homer-picking the Giants? (closing my eyes and extending my finger randomly toward the screen)

This man out-dueled Tom Brady in Super Bowl 42. Sort of. Proof that God does indeed exist, and loves us all.

Yes, even you Mr. Belichick. It was for your own good.

Chicago -5 over DETROIT: Ok, Bears; you’ve got my attention. Now what are you gonna do with it? Continue your undefeated streak against your division against a team that is winless in your division? Well…props to Ndamukong Suh for at least making me think twice before picking the favorite.

GREEN BAY -9.5 over San Francisco: The NFC West is 9 - 26 against non-NFC West teams. The St Louis Rams (Sammie!!) lead the division at 5 - 6. San Francisco goes into December at 4 - 7 and one game out of first place. I’m not going to say the division should be stripped of it’s automatic playoff bid, but… Ok, maybe just this once.

CINCINNATI +6.5 over New Orleans: Cincy’s due. And I need an upset. And they’re at home. With a free touchdown. Wait, it’s not a whole touchdown?! Oh, well. The Rams’ll bail me out with an upset special.

Atlanta -3 over TAMPA BAY: It’s all going according to plan for the Falcons. Beat Tampa Bay this week and you get the Panthers and then the Seahawks, and then home vs. the Saints, home vs. the Panthers to finish the season with the best record in the NFC. You know what that means? Matt Ryan (19 - 1 at the Georgia Dome) and his Falcons march through the playoffs and lose in Dallas this February to the Pittsburgh Steelers. I feel for sorry for you already, Georgia.

Oakland +13 over SAN DIEGO: Holy bajillions of points, Batman! Yeah, I know, Chargers in December blah blah blah. (noticing that I’ve picked 8 favorites already…)

Yeah, ok. You tell this guy his team can’t come within 13 points of the hated Chargers.

SEATTLE -5.5 over Carolina: Even when the Browns gave them 10 points—I’m not talking about the spread, I mean literally: Jake Delhomme threw two INTs on consecutive offensive plays to open the second half, one a pick six and the other turned into a field goal after the Panthers went three-and-out on the ensuing possession—the Panthers blundered into an opportunity to win the game on a 42-yard field goal on the last play (either the sideline pass to Williams on the penultimate play was incomplete and the clock was stopped with time left, or the pass was complete—as ruled, correctly, after review—with the receiver down in bounds causing the five remaining seconds to run out on the timeout-less Panthers), and still lost the game. And they travel 3,000 miles this week.

Dallas +5.5 over INDIANAPOLIS: Ok, the Colts are done. Thanks for letting us know, guys! It was a good decade!

St Louis -3.5 over ARIZONA: Twenty bucks says Derek Anderson comes out determined to show us all that he’s ten times better than what he showed last Monday night, and in the press conference that followed. Fifty bucks says Sam Bradford actually is.

Pittsburgh +3 over BALTIMORE: If you’re like me, you’re wondering, when is the last time Pittsburgh was an underdog? Halloween, by a point, at New Orleans. When before that? Week 2 at Tennessee, sans Ben Roethlisberger. You’re giving me the (2010–2011 NFL Champion) Steelers with points? (shrugging) Ok.

NY Jets +3.5 over New England: The Jets are good enough to win this game, and seem destined for the AFC’s number one seed. Unfortunately for them, that plays right into Pittsburgh’s strengths come playoff time. Can the Jets be serious this week? If so, they win. Bill Belichick’s Patriots have been playing well beyond their talent level anyway. When a white running back not named Peyton Hillis leads your team in rushing average, you have issues.

Danny Woodhead: about as tall as Matt Light…after jumping as high as he can.

Week 12

SUPER DUPER HOLIDAY EDITION!

All this could be yours on Thursday, Dez...

Last week I continued our return to respectability with another modest-but-profitable +.500 week at 9 - 7. Unfortunately, if I were gambling my son’s college fund, I’d still have to be taking his picks as he continued his success with a 10 - 6 record on the week (N.B. Ideally, my son gets to go to college for free on the grounds that Dad is a professor, but if Dad is a professor, then it’s pretty much a lock that he’s not going to want to go to whatever school that is, right?)

The early action this week features a full day’s worth of games on Thanksgiving Day, because, you know, what else are you going to do? So that means both that I have time to write the column early and that I kind of have to. Because watching nine hours of football on Thanksgiving isn’t enough ignoring of actual people without writing What’s Gonna Happen. But it’s a service. Once you read this, you won’t have to spend nine hours staring at the screen tomorrow. Maybe just six… (home teams in caps)

New England -6.5 over DETROIT: In spite of his fancy stat line (6 TD, 1 INT, 91.3 passer rating), it has become fair to wonder whether Matthew Stafford has the durability to be a franchise quarterback. Brady does. But with Welker and Woodhead coming on, the real question is: just how much is that durability going to be tested by rookie of the year lock Ndamukong Suh?

DALLAS +4 over New Orleans: All stats before the overpaid millionaires who quit on their coach got their wish, are out the window (including the one that says the Cowboys give up 10 more points per game than the Saints). Dallas can play with anybody from here on out. We will see the poster child for this team full of divas, Dez Bryant, hoisting the Galloping Gobbler ere the day is done, and he just might top Brett Favre’s insulting acceptance speech of 2007: “Well, I guess it’s better than not getting it.”

Cincinnati +9 over NY JETS: I’m not saying Cincy’s going to win this one, but the Jets have been flirting with losses against less talented teams for weeks now (OT at Detroit, OT at Cleveland, last-second drive vs. Houston), and Cincinnati—losers of seven in a row despite averaging 22.4 points per game—has the most prolific offense in the league…in garbage time. With the way the Jets have been playing, there’s going to be a lot of garbage time, and this game’s not going to be as close as the final score.

Go tell Ocho to get his sombrero on... it's garbage time!

¿TO say garbage time? ¡Andale!

Minnesota +1.5 over WASHINGTON: Anyone else disgusted by the quitters in Minnesota and Dallas this season? Ok, ok, the Cowboys are confirmed quitters: they exploded in a 33-20 victory over the division-leading Giants in their first game after their coach was fired. Minnesota? We’ll see. Something tells me that a team ten months removed from the NFC Championship game (and an overtime loss away from representing the NFC in the Super Bowl) is actually capable of more than the 3 - 7 slop they’ve been serving up to the hardworking people of Minnesota so far this year. I’m thinking the Redskins’ 32-ranked defense is the cure for Old Man Favre.

Brett Favre before he outgrew team sports.

Pittsburgh -6.5 over BUFFALO: A touchdown? Seriously? Really? Are we supposed to take Buffalo seriously because they outscored the Bengals (2 - 8) and the Lions (2 - 8) by a ratio of 1.5 : 1? Sorry, Buffalo; I love you, and you are the undisputed best 2 - 8 team in the league…but Pittsburgh is going to win the Super Bowl this year (over the Falcons, 33 - 27) and this is really more of a tryout for Ryan Fitzpatrick.

Tennessee +6.5 over HOUSTON: There are two ways this game plays out. The Titans and their fifth-best scoring offense (which averages only 180 passing YPG) get an early lead and play ball-control for 45 minutes while the pundits continue to drone their mantra “You can’t win in this NFL without having a pass-wacky offense.” OR the Texans find a way to neutralize the running game of Tennessee by getting ahead. Either way, these teams are so equally capable of winning this game (despite their dramatically different styles) that I’m taking whoever gets free points.

NY GIANTS -7 over Jacksonville: Last week Jacksonville defied the odds (95% since the NFL–AFL merger) to win a game in which they turned the ball over a flabbergasting six times. This week they play a varsity team. Hope you enjoyed your week of being on top of the AFC South, Jags fans.

CLEVELAND -11 over Carolina: I love this line. Can Carolina really be this bad? There’s really no way. Did anybody in Vegas watch the Browns game last week? The one in which they snatched defeat from the jaws of victory, turning six turnovers into a measly 3 points? (N.B. not 10 points, as some reported, seven of those points being scored on the INT returned for a TD by safety Abe Elam.) There are plenty of reasons to pick against the Browns here, not the least of which are the possible absence of McCoy, Cribbs, two starting offensive linemen and starting TE Benjamin Watson, to say nothing of defensive captain Scott Fujita and starting cornerback Eric Wright, but this line is just too ridiculous not to revel in it. Even if it is against the Panthers, who lose games by 11 points like it’s their job (averaging -13.5 actually).

Tampa Bay +7.5 over Baltimore: FACTOID: despite having the same record, the Ravens are netting +55 and the Bucs +3. If this had been a seven point spread I might not have taken the Bucs. But I think they can get by even when their rushing game is stymied, and besides, their Cadillac is back up and running. Freeman is fun to watch, and this is Tampa Bay’s legitimization game. Not losing by more than a score.

Philadelphia -3.5 over CHICAGO: Video game Vick is back down to earth, and the Bears are the worst 7 - 3 team in the NFL. I still don’t know what the Eagles (also 7 - 3) are, but I do know this: the kicker is not going to be the most influential person in the game on Sunday.

ATLANTA -2 over Green Bay: In a preview of the NFC Championship game, Green Bay learns about Matt Ryan’s favorite factoid (17 - 1 as a starter in the Georgia Dome), while Matt Ryan learns about Green Bay’s favorite linebacker (Clay Matthews JUNIOR leads the NFL with 11.5 sacks).

OAKLAND -3 over Miami: The beat-down cycle continues: Browns over Patriots (34 - 14); Patriots over Steelers (39 - 26); Steelers over Raiders (35 - 3); Raiders over Miami. Raiders go over 30 and the Dolphins perpetuate the cycle next week against…Cleveland? Wait! Nooooooooo! Why, God?!

Kansas City -1.5 over SEATTLE: With San Diego coming on in the AFC West, Kansas City can’t afford to lose these types of games, road or no road, and a 1.5 point spread is nothing. Seattle, on the other hand, can challenge for the NFC West with a .500 record.

St Louis +4 over DENVER: (looking suspiciously over my shoulder) I think the coast is clear to bet on St Louis again. Sammie!

INDIANAPOLIS -3 over San Diego: The perennially 12 - 4 Colts have already lost four games. Which means they’re about to win six in a row. It won’t be easy, as they play Divas—I mean Dallas—Jacksonville, Oakland, and Tennessee (twice). But we’ll just wait and let the Colts tell us when they’re done. Besides, when Rivers and Manning meet, I’m betting there aren’t going to be too many field goals being kicked.

San Francisco -1 over ARIZONA: This week’s iteration of ESPN’s “MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL” features a division showdown of two 3 - 7 teams playing at the end of November with playoff implications! Beh-neh-neh! Neh-neh-neh! GET PUMPED!