Last week I continued our return to respectability with another modest-but-profitable +.500 week at 9 - 7. Unfortunately, if I were gambling my son’s college fund, I’d still have to be taking his picks as he continued his success with a 10 - 6 record on the week (N.B. Ideally, my son gets to go to college for free on the grounds that Dad is a professor, but if Dad is a professor, then it’s pretty much a lock that he’s not going to want to go to whatever school that is, right?)
The early action this week features a full day’s worth of games on Thanksgiving Day, because, you know, what else are you going to do? So that means both that I have time to write the column early and that I kind of have to. Because watching nine hours of football on Thanksgiving isn’t enough ignoring of actual people without writing What’s Gonna Happen. But it’s a service. Once you read this, you won’t have to spend nine hours staring at the screen tomorrow. Maybe just six… (home teams in caps)
New England -6.5 over DETROIT: In spite of his fancy stat line (6 TD, 1 INT, 91.3 passer rating), it has become fair to wonder whether Matthew Stafford has the durability to be a franchise quarterback. Brady does. But with Welker and Woodhead coming on, the real question is: just how much is that durability going to be tested by rookie of the year lock Ndamukong Suh?
DALLAS +4 over New Orleans: All stats before the overpaid millionaires who quit on their coach got their wish, are out the window (including the one that says the Cowboys give up 10 more points per game than the Saints). Dallas can play with anybody from here on out. We will see the poster child for this team full of divas, Dez Bryant, hoisting the Galloping Gobbler ere the day is done, and he just might top Brett Favre’s insulting acceptance speech of 2007: “Well, I guess it’s better than not getting it.”
Cincinnati +9 over NY JETS: I’m not saying Cincy’s going to win this one, but the Jets have been flirting with losses against less talented teams for weeks now (OT at Detroit, OT at Cleveland, last-second drive vs. Houston), and Cincinnati—losers of seven in a row despite averaging 22.4 points per game—has the most prolific offense in the league…in garbage time. With the way the Jets have been playing, there’s going to be a lot of garbage time, and this game’s not going to be as close as the final score.
Minnesota +1.5 over WASHINGTON: Anyone else disgusted by the quitters in Minnesota and Dallas this season? Ok, ok, the Cowboys are confirmed quitters: they exploded in a 33-20 victory over the division-leading Giants in their first game after their coach was fired. Minnesota? We’ll see. Something tells me that a team ten months removed from the NFC Championship game (and an overtime loss away from representing the NFC in the Super Bowl) is actually capable of more than the 3 - 7 slop they’ve been serving up to the hardworking people of Minnesota so far this year. I’m thinking the Redskins’ 32-ranked defense is the cure for Old Man Favre.
Pittsburgh -6.5 over BUFFALO: A touchdown? Seriously? Really? Are we supposed to take Buffalo seriously because they outscored the Bengals (2 - 8) and the Lions (2 - 8) by a ratio of 1.5 : 1? Sorry, Buffalo; I love you, and you are the undisputed best 2 - 8 team in the league…but Pittsburgh is going to win the Super Bowl this year (over the Falcons, 33 - 27) and this is really more of a tryout for Ryan Fitzpatrick.
Tennessee +6.5 over HOUSTON: There are two ways this game plays out. The Titans and their fifth-best scoring offense (which averages only 180 passing YPG) get an early lead and play ball-control for 45 minutes while the pundits continue to drone their mantra “You can’t win in this NFL without having a pass-wacky offense.” OR the Texans find a way to neutralize the running game of Tennessee by getting ahead. Either way, these teams are so equally capable of winning this game (despite their dramatically different styles) that I’m taking whoever gets free points.
NY GIANTS -7 over Jacksonville: Last week Jacksonville defied the odds (95% since the NFL–AFL merger) to win a game in which they turned the ball over a flabbergasting six times. This week they play a varsity team. Hope you enjoyed your week of being on top of the AFC South, Jags fans.
CLEVELAND -11 over Carolina: I love this line. Can Carolina really be this bad? There’s really no way. Did anybody in Vegas watch the Browns game last week? The one in which they snatched defeat from the jaws of victory, turning six turnovers into a measly 3 points? (N.B. not 10 points, as some reported, seven of those points being scored on the INT returned for a TD by safety Abe Elam.) There are plenty of reasons to pick against the Browns here, not the least of which are the possible absence of McCoy, Cribbs, two starting offensive linemen and starting TE Benjamin Watson, to say nothing of defensive captain Scott Fujita and starting cornerback Eric Wright, but this line is just too ridiculous not to revel in it. Even if it is against the Panthers, who lose games by 11 points like it’s their job (averaging -13.5 actually).
Tampa Bay +7.5 over Baltimore: FACTOID: despite having the same record, the Ravens are netting +55 and the Bucs +3. If this had been a seven point spread I might not have taken the Bucs. But I think they can get by even when their rushing game is stymied, and besides, their Cadillac is back up and running. Freeman is fun to watch, and this is Tampa Bay’s legitimization game. Not losing by more than a score.
Philadelphia -3.5 over CHICAGO: Video game Vick is back down to earth, and the Bears are the worst 7 - 3 team in the NFL. I still don’t know what the Eagles (also 7 - 3) are, but I do know this: the kicker is not going to be the most influential person in the game on Sunday.
ATLANTA -2 over Green Bay: In a preview of the NFC Championship game, Green Bay learns about Matt Ryan’s favorite factoid (17 - 1 as a starter in the Georgia Dome), while Matt Ryan learns about Green Bay’s favorite linebacker (Clay Matthews JUNIOR leads the NFL with 11.5 sacks).
OAKLAND -3 over Miami: The beat-down cycle continues: Browns over Patriots (34 - 14); Patriots over Steelers (39 - 26); Steelers over Raiders (35 - 3); Raiders over Miami. Raiders go over 30 and the Dolphins perpetuate the cycle next week against…Cleveland? Wait! Nooooooooo! Why, God?!
Kansas City -1.5 over SEATTLE: With San Diego coming on in the AFC West, Kansas City can’t afford to lose these types of games, road or no road, and a 1.5 point spread is nothing. Seattle, on the other hand, can challenge for the NFC West with a .500 record.
St Louis +4 over DENVER: (looking suspiciously over my shoulder) I think the coast is clear to bet on St Louis again. Sammie!
INDIANAPOLIS -3 over San Diego: The perennially 12 - 4 Colts have already lost four games. Which means they’re about to win six in a row. It won’t be easy, as they play Divas—I mean Dallas—Jacksonville, Oakland, and Tennessee (twice). But we’ll just wait and let the Colts tell us when they’re done. Besides, when Rivers and Manning meet, I’m betting there aren’t going to be too many field goals being kicked.
San Francisco -1 over ARIZONA: This week’s iteration of ESPN’s “MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL” features a division showdown of two 3 - 7 teams playing at the end of November with playoff implications! Beh-neh-neh! Neh-neh-neh! GET PUMPED!
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