But easier if you’re 4. Yes, last week I was beaten by my 4-year-old son. But the weekend is finally here, so I’ll probably take him out front, put the ball in his hands, and tackle him in the yard. See how tough he is when I James Harrison him into the turf. Seriously, though, since the season has shaken out to the midpoint, we’ve seen Super Bowl favorites Dallas, Minnesota, Indianapolis and San Diego go a combined 13 - 20. And I defy you to name the prognosticator who picks the full slate of games against the spread and is willing to go on record with his picks. We were 6 - 7 last week, by the way, with one game ending at the line itself. On to Week 10… [UPDATE: Bill Simmons actually does this, and my son beat him too (Simmons went 6 - 6 - 1, just like me, but he reckons the push as a tie).]
ATLANTA -1 over Baltimore: Ok, I know this game happened already, so it’s not really “what’s gonna happen”, but the wife and I both picked the 17 - 1 at home Matt Ryan to beat the pretenders to the AFC North crown as the game was starting (didn’t you?).
INDIANAPOLIS -7 over Cincinnati: The Colts are coming off a close loss to a superior Eagles squad that’s starting to get healthy and making a surprising run at the division title. You have to go back to October of 2008 for the last time the Colts have lost consecutive games (not counting Weeks 16 and 17, when Manning and the rest of the starters usually take their annual Christmas Vacation). And the Bengals, well…October 2010. But let us pity the Bengals, who finish up their season this year @NYJ, vs. NO, @PIT, vs. CLE, vs. SD, and @BAL.
Houston +1.5 over JAX: Jack del Rio’s boys are somehow sitting at 4 - 4 at the halfway point of the season, in spite of not really doing anything all that well. Houston, on the other hand, has the 5th best offense and the worst defense in the league, and they check in at 4 - 4 as well. The only thing that makes this game relevant to the playoff hunt is the Colts’ uncharacteristic first-half struggles.
Tennessee -1.5 over MIAMI: My gut tells me that Miami can’t—they just can’t—lose at home this week after what happened a week ago in Baltimore. My gut is usually wrong. But my head has been right before, and my head wants to tell Channing Crowder’s head that whatever comes out of Ray Rice’s head is fair game to use as a weapon, right Channing?
Minnesota -1 over CHICAGO: Jay Cutler finds his stride just in time to avoid totally losing Chicago’s chance at the division…just as old man Brett begins his swan song.
BUFFALO -2.5 over Detroit: I know Detroit gets points here, but didn’t Buffalo have to win by a field goal anyway? Matthew Stafford trots out for introductions and then holds a clipboard for the rest of the game. Bad news for the Megatron.
NY Jets -3 over CLEVELAND: So far this year, the Browns have beaten the reigning division champions, the reigning Super Bowl champions, and the reigning league-best record team. None of them had a terrific run defense, and, even though Hillis bulldozed the Ravens all day long back in September, the Ravens’ D is, as we saw last night (and throughout the season), not what it used to be. Besides, so far I’ve been picking against Cleveland and they’ve been winning, so I’ll take the Browns victory over the correct pick all season long. Just don’t say the “P-word” unless they win on Sunday.
TAMPA BAY -7 over Carolina: Didn’t take long to find out about these two quarterbacks, did it? Josh Freeman throws TDs (10), Jimmy Clausen does not (1). The Panthers’ formerly great rushing tandem of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart is averaging under 4 yards per carry, while LeGarrette Blount is starting to come on. I’m thinking 14 points wouldn’t have been enough for the hapless Panthers. Can I pick this game twice?
Kansas City -1 over DENVER: Jamaal Charles is averaging 6.4 yards per carry this year. Jamaal Charles is averaging 6.4 yards per carry this year. I wrote that twice on purpose. On Sunday, Josh McDaniels crosses the field during pre-game warmups to see what a running back looks like, then returns to his sideline and marvels at Brady Quinn’s biceps—which are his consolation for trading away Peyton Hillis and two draft picks.
From the people of Northeast Ohio: Thanks again, Coach McDaniels.
St Louis +6 over SAN FRANCISCO: The 49ers have dusted off Heisman-winner Troy Smith, but the Rams have a QB of their own who’s continuing to show that he’s pretty special, has won 3 in a row against the spread, and still can’t get people to bet on him. You get my money, Sammie!
Seattle +3 over ARIZONA: Tune in Sunday for this exciting clash of NFC West contenders! With a combined net score of -119, will one of these teams be able to win, or will we be treated to a turnover extravaganza in the middle of which the NFL stops the game and demotes both teams to Canada?
...We'll be seeing a lot of this on Sunday.
Dallas +13.5 over NY GIANTS: There are so many reasons to take the Giants, possibly the best team in the NFC, at home here. Will Dallas have a pulse? That’s a lot of free points. Dallas is losing a lot, but only netting -9 per game.
New England +4.5 over PITTSBURGH: Pittsburgh's offensive line can only take so much, and it was already hard to keep Big Ben clean in the pocket while he hangs in there as long as anyone in the NFL. Tom Brady has one career loss against the Steelers.
WASHINGTON +3 over Philadelphia: I know, I know, the team that fielded Rex Grossman as the best chance to win is going to take it to the team that beat the Colts? Yep. And we’ll see why they said last summer that this was a transition year for Philly.
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