Week 11

The boy went 10 - 3. 10 - 3?! And that was with picking Carolina to win! The big question of this column is now no longer “What’s gonna happen?” but rather “Can I out-pick my four-year-old son?” I went 7 - 6, by the way, which still takes home cash at the end of the day, and makes the wife hope I won’t publish her record (4 - 9). In the wake of an astounding NINE upsets against the spread, the NFL marches on in this strangest of seasons. On to the picks! (home teams in caps)

Bears +1.5 over DOLPHINS: As last week, picks were made in-house on Thursday night. I’m not writing this column during the work week. Sorry.

PITTSBURGH -7.5 over Oakland: For the same reason that New England had to blow out Pittsburgh last week, this week the Steelers will bring Oakland’s win streak to a screeching halt: because they’re too good a team yet not to bounce back big time from an ass whoopin’.

NY JETS -7 over Houston: Gary Kubiak’s wife has a dream Saturday night that she gives birth to a Satyr, and the dream-interpreters in the Texans’ front office who are in charge of Houston’s drafts inform Coach that it portends the beginning of the traditional late-season swan-dive for the Texans. And they never had a better opponent for it than the Jets, who look pretty good coming off a last-second OT win for the second week in a row.

Um...Coach? We've consulted the Sibylline Oracles. It's bad. The curse will not be broken until "an army walks across the Hellespont." Any ideas?

Baltimore -11 over CAROLINA: 11? That’s it? 11? I’ll give you 15, Panthers. (rubbing my hands in anticipation of attending Panthers at Browns next week)

We used to make the Carolinas happy! Now one of us is the third-string quarterback for the Browns and the other is on IR.

Washington +7 over TENNESSEE: Part of me is saying, “Come on, you gave Pittsburgh the old “bounce back” theory, and you’re not going to give it to Washington? You actually like the Skins,” while another part is saying, “Yeah, but it’s the Skins. Owners of the league’s worst defense. Only way they win this game is with lots and lots of turnovers.” And the way this season is going, that’s what’s gonna happen.

DALLAS -6 over Detroit: Can’t wait to see these two teams on Thanksgiving next week! Matthew Stafford is having a stellar year, completing 60% of his passes with a TD:INT ratio of 6:1. Too bad he’s not playing and the petulant Cowboys feel like playing now that there’s sure to be a big-time house-cleaning when Bill Cowher takes this thing over next year. (NOTE: With the passing of his wife, you can be sure that the man is going to give himself back to the 24/7 job he left in 2006. Wouldn’t you?)

This man could run out of fingers some day...

Green Bay -3 over MINNESOTA: ESPN’s least successful expert predictors are calling Minnesota for this one. Enough said. But can Aaron Rodgers and Co. cover…? On the other hand, this is probably the game where the Vikings players stage a blowout to get rid of the coach they quit on about a month ago and the Packers are coming off a bye.

Do you trust this man to run your offense?

CINCINNATI -5.5 over Buffalo: Only with Buffalo could we be talking about a “let down” after a two point win at home over the Detroit Lions.

Cleveland +1.5 over JAX: Take away a miraculous Hail Mary and a devastating fumble in field goal range in OT and these teams have the same record (4 - 5). Two plays are the difference between the Jaguars (5 - 4) and the Browns (3 - 6), but the Browns have finally come out of the hard part of the league’s toughest schedule (with games @TB, vs. KC, @BAL, @ATL, @PIT, @NO, vs. NE, and vs. NYJ—seven of ESPN’s top 11 teams) and are an improving team in Mangini’s second year at the helm. In the last meeting of these two teams, the Browns rushed for 214 yards…and that was in the year 1 BP (before Peyton).

KANSAS CITY -8 over Arizona: The Chiefs are not who we thought they were! Still, Jamaal Charles brings his 6 YPC to the Cards’ 28th-ranked rushing defense. I’ll take a week off from picking on Derek Anderson. It’s not his fault. He’s just too good to be a backup, but not good enough to be a starter. Like Kelly Holcomb.

Who doesn’t remember this game?

NEW ORLEANS -11.5 over Seattle: Am I not picking enough upsets this week? Maybe not, but the NFC West is an astounding -161 in net points this year, which means it’s hard to pick anyone but the Rams (a neat 7 - 2 against the spread). Saints need to keep pace with the Falcons, who travel to…

Atlanta -3 over ST LOUIS: My brain is screaming at me to stay away from St Louis this week. Vegas has finally figured them out. The spread is down. Three points is nothing. Get away! I just—can’t—stop myself. Wait…they’re playing who? The Super Bowl-bound Falcons? Ok brain. You win—this week.

Tampa Bay +3 over SAN FRANCISCO: The young Bucs take Josh Freeman and his nifty QB play to the bay: 12 TDs, 5 INTs and 60% completion. They need this win if they want to stay in the conversation with the Saints and Falcons. This is probably not the year for them, but it’s definitely not the year for San Francisco (3 - 6 overall, 4 - 5 against the spread, losing by an average of 4 points per game).

Indianapolis +4 over NEW ENGLAND: Because I have a hard time believing that the team with Peyton Manning can’t even come within 4 points of the team that the team with Colt McCoy utterly dominated just two weeks ago.

New York Giants +3 over PHILADELPHIA: Sorry to all you Eagles fans who have been clamoring about Vick as MVP of the NFL: these are not your mama’s Redskins, and the Giants have something to prove coming off a shocking wake-up call against the Cowboys last week. Let’s wait and see if Vick can put together anything resembling a season (or, you know, two games) of great performances like we saw last week before we bump him up to the top of the heap. The greats are playing in Gillette this Sunday.

(N.B. DeSean Jackson likened Vick’s receiving corps to “pit bulls” in a press conference this week. Oops.)

Denver +10 over SAN DIEGO: Look, I’m not saying Denver’s not terrible. I’m not saying Josh McDaniels’ Broncos stand a Pro Bowl-caliber Running Back’s chance in Denver of winning this game. But after scoring 49 points on the Chiefs last week, you have to expect this is going to be a high scoring affair and the team with the least turnovers wins by a possession.

Thank you, baby Jesus, for putting me behind Joe Thomas, Eric Steinbach, and Alex Mack. Amen.