Week 9

I took a beating last week (5 - 13), but at least I’m in good company, because so did a certain Hall-of-Fame-to-be quarterback and the World Controllers, both of whom have apparently raised questions about entitlement in recent weeks. No such worries for me, as I’ve rarely been on top in this wacky season in which the NFL as a whole is showing more parity than usual (the Colts aren’t on their usual perfect-season-to-be-destroyed-when-they-go-on-vacation-for-the-month-of-December), which means the spreads are showing more upsets and fluctuation from one week to the next. Also like Congress. On to the picks…

BUFFALO +3 over Chicago: Jay “I’ve thrown 2 TDs and 6 INTs since starting the season with 5 TDs to 1 INT” Cutler takes his talents to Buffalo—er…Toronto—where the Bills, who have not lost a game against the spread in over a month, aim to show the Dandy from Vandy how a Harvard man can sling it in Canada. Unfortunately, with games against the Lions, Bengals, Vikings, and Browns, this is not Buffalo’s last chance to win a game this year, but I’ll take ‘em with the points.

HOUSTON +3 over San Diego: The inconsistent Texans bounce back from a tough loss in Indy as the inconsistent Chargers bounce back from a tough win at home last week against the good, tough, other team from Houston.

New Orleans -6.5 over CAROLINA: In a surprise development, a Notre Dame QB has failed to live up to expectations in Carolina. Is America’s iconic Catholic University, which gave us Joe Montana and Joe Theisman, losing its identity? Meanwhile, Carolina has firmly captured rights to this years Nats crown, and they’re going to need a lot more than 6.5.

MINNESOTA -8 over Arizona: Derek Anderson is starting again. Enough said.

Don't let it get to you, DA. It's not like you're throwing to the best receiver in the NFL or anything.

ATLANTA -8.5 over Tampa Bay: While I respect what Josh Freeman and Raheem Morris (who is younger than at least one member of his defensive secondary) are doing in Tampa Bay, teams have had plenty of time to game plan against the young QB and they’re not in Tampa this week, as they travel to play the real “best team in the NFC”.

DETROIT +4 over NY Jets: Ndamukong Suh is the real deal. Just ask Santana Moss.

Miami +5.5 over BALTIMORE: With Joe Flacco struggling, Baltimore refuses to commit to its ground game and the talking heads are talking more about Harbaugh’s job than abut Eric Mangini’s. You know that has to be a bad sign.

New England -4.5 over CLEVELAND: Speaking of Eric Mangini. This is classic Anakin versus Obi Wan, except the lowdown, dirty cheater is the mentor here. Bill Simmons has this to say: "Bend but don't break on defense, spread the ball around on offense, get lucky with turnovers, take advantage of dumb coaching decisions by the other team, don't beat yourself with stupid penalties, get consistently good contributions from a loaded rookie class AND random castoffs from other teams, keep chugging along even as people are rightfully picking you apart and pointing to hard-core reasons why this can't continue ... ladies and gentlemen, the—"

—New England Patriots. He might as easily have said the Browns. Tom Brady wins.

SEATTLE +7 over NY Giants: The Giants are one of the top two or three teams in the NFC—with a great running game! The Seahawks are 3 - 0 at home against the spread, and ready to answer the bell after a beat-down at the hands of the Raiders last week.

Kansas City -2.5 over OAKLAND: Can Oakland really continue to score this many points (59 two weeks ago, 33 last week)?

Scary FACTOID: In the last two weeks, they’ve outscored opponents 92 - 17.

Scary FACTOID 2: before that they lost to the 49ers… Still, the Raiders, who boast the league's 4th-best scoring offense (2nd-ranked in rushing) and 15th-best defense in points allowed could very well win. I’m just not betting on ‘em yet. Next week maybe.

Indianapolis +3 over PHILADELPHIA: Michael Vick is back! So is Peyton Manning, and, more importantly, the Colts’ D (last week the Texans’ longest scoring drive was just barely longer than the Colts’ shortest one as the Colts won the TOP battle 36:25 to 23:35).

GREEN BAY -7.5 over Dallas: Aaron Rodgers’ Packers probably don’t agree with Roy Williams’ recent analysis, as the Cowboys bring their league-worst record against the spread into the frigid field at Green Bay.

Pittsburgh -5 over CINCINNATI: Good job winning the division last year, Cincy. Seriously. Now get back to the AFC North basement. Cheers! But the real storyline for this game is, is James Harrison going to be able to fill up his car with gas and make it to the game after getting fined (again) the working man’s equivalent to a quarter-pounder with cheese (which is, apparently, a lot of money for Mr. Harrison).