Week 12

SUPER DUPER HOLIDAY EDITION!

All this could be yours on Thursday, Dez...

Last week I continued our return to respectability with another modest-but-profitable +.500 week at 9 - 7. Unfortunately, if I were gambling my son’s college fund, I’d still have to be taking his picks as he continued his success with a 10 - 6 record on the week (N.B. Ideally, my son gets to go to college for free on the grounds that Dad is a professor, but if Dad is a professor, then it’s pretty much a lock that he’s not going to want to go to whatever school that is, right?)

The early action this week features a full day’s worth of games on Thanksgiving Day, because, you know, what else are you going to do? So that means both that I have time to write the column early and that I kind of have to. Because watching nine hours of football on Thanksgiving isn’t enough ignoring of actual people without writing What’s Gonna Happen. But it’s a service. Once you read this, you won’t have to spend nine hours staring at the screen tomorrow. Maybe just six… (home teams in caps)

New England -6.5 over DETROIT: In spite of his fancy stat line (6 TD, 1 INT, 91.3 passer rating), it has become fair to wonder whether Matthew Stafford has the durability to be a franchise quarterback. Brady does. But with Welker and Woodhead coming on, the real question is: just how much is that durability going to be tested by rookie of the year lock Ndamukong Suh?

DALLAS +4 over New Orleans: All stats before the overpaid millionaires who quit on their coach got their wish, are out the window (including the one that says the Cowboys give up 10 more points per game than the Saints). Dallas can play with anybody from here on out. We will see the poster child for this team full of divas, Dez Bryant, hoisting the Galloping Gobbler ere the day is done, and he just might top Brett Favre’s insulting acceptance speech of 2007: “Well, I guess it’s better than not getting it.”

Cincinnati +9 over NY JETS: I’m not saying Cincy’s going to win this one, but the Jets have been flirting with losses against less talented teams for weeks now (OT at Detroit, OT at Cleveland, last-second drive vs. Houston), and Cincinnati—losers of seven in a row despite averaging 22.4 points per game—has the most prolific offense in the league…in garbage time. With the way the Jets have been playing, there’s going to be a lot of garbage time, and this game’s not going to be as close as the final score.

Go tell Ocho to get his sombrero on... it's garbage time!

¿TO say garbage time? ¡Andale!

Minnesota +1.5 over WASHINGTON: Anyone else disgusted by the quitters in Minnesota and Dallas this season? Ok, ok, the Cowboys are confirmed quitters: they exploded in a 33-20 victory over the division-leading Giants in their first game after their coach was fired. Minnesota? We’ll see. Something tells me that a team ten months removed from the NFC Championship game (and an overtime loss away from representing the NFC in the Super Bowl) is actually capable of more than the 3 - 7 slop they’ve been serving up to the hardworking people of Minnesota so far this year. I’m thinking the Redskins’ 32-ranked defense is the cure for Old Man Favre.

Brett Favre before he outgrew team sports.

Pittsburgh -6.5 over BUFFALO: A touchdown? Seriously? Really? Are we supposed to take Buffalo seriously because they outscored the Bengals (2 - 8) and the Lions (2 - 8) by a ratio of 1.5 : 1? Sorry, Buffalo; I love you, and you are the undisputed best 2 - 8 team in the league…but Pittsburgh is going to win the Super Bowl this year (over the Falcons, 33 - 27) and this is really more of a tryout for Ryan Fitzpatrick.

Tennessee +6.5 over HOUSTON: There are two ways this game plays out. The Titans and their fifth-best scoring offense (which averages only 180 passing YPG) get an early lead and play ball-control for 45 minutes while the pundits continue to drone their mantra “You can’t win in this NFL without having a pass-wacky offense.” OR the Texans find a way to neutralize the running game of Tennessee by getting ahead. Either way, these teams are so equally capable of winning this game (despite their dramatically different styles) that I’m taking whoever gets free points.

NY GIANTS -7 over Jacksonville: Last week Jacksonville defied the odds (95% since the NFL–AFL merger) to win a game in which they turned the ball over a flabbergasting six times. This week they play a varsity team. Hope you enjoyed your week of being on top of the AFC South, Jags fans.

CLEVELAND -11 over Carolina: I love this line. Can Carolina really be this bad? There’s really no way. Did anybody in Vegas watch the Browns game last week? The one in which they snatched defeat from the jaws of victory, turning six turnovers into a measly 3 points? (N.B. not 10 points, as some reported, seven of those points being scored on the INT returned for a TD by safety Abe Elam.) There are plenty of reasons to pick against the Browns here, not the least of which are the possible absence of McCoy, Cribbs, two starting offensive linemen and starting TE Benjamin Watson, to say nothing of defensive captain Scott Fujita and starting cornerback Eric Wright, but this line is just too ridiculous not to revel in it. Even if it is against the Panthers, who lose games by 11 points like it’s their job (averaging -13.5 actually).

Tampa Bay +7.5 over Baltimore: FACTOID: despite having the same record, the Ravens are netting +55 and the Bucs +3. If this had been a seven point spread I might not have taken the Bucs. But I think they can get by even when their rushing game is stymied, and besides, their Cadillac is back up and running. Freeman is fun to watch, and this is Tampa Bay’s legitimization game. Not losing by more than a score.

Philadelphia -3.5 over CHICAGO: Video game Vick is back down to earth, and the Bears are the worst 7 - 3 team in the NFL. I still don’t know what the Eagles (also 7 - 3) are, but I do know this: the kicker is not going to be the most influential person in the game on Sunday.

ATLANTA -2 over Green Bay: In a preview of the NFC Championship game, Green Bay learns about Matt Ryan’s favorite factoid (17 - 1 as a starter in the Georgia Dome), while Matt Ryan learns about Green Bay’s favorite linebacker (Clay Matthews JUNIOR leads the NFL with 11.5 sacks).

OAKLAND -3 over Miami: The beat-down cycle continues: Browns over Patriots (34 - 14); Patriots over Steelers (39 - 26); Steelers over Raiders (35 - 3); Raiders over Miami. Raiders go over 30 and the Dolphins perpetuate the cycle next week against…Cleveland? Wait! Nooooooooo! Why, God?!

Kansas City -1.5 over SEATTLE: With San Diego coming on in the AFC West, Kansas City can’t afford to lose these types of games, road or no road, and a 1.5 point spread is nothing. Seattle, on the other hand, can challenge for the NFC West with a .500 record.

St Louis +4 over DENVER: (looking suspiciously over my shoulder) I think the coast is clear to bet on St Louis again. Sammie!

INDIANAPOLIS -3 over San Diego: The perennially 12 - 4 Colts have already lost four games. Which means they’re about to win six in a row. It won’t be easy, as they play Divas—I mean Dallas—Jacksonville, Oakland, and Tennessee (twice). But we’ll just wait and let the Colts tell us when they’re done. Besides, when Rivers and Manning meet, I’m betting there aren’t going to be too many field goals being kicked.

San Francisco -1 over ARIZONA: This week’s iteration of ESPN’s “MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL” features a division showdown of two 3 - 7 teams playing at the end of November with playoff implications! Beh-neh-neh! Neh-neh-neh! GET PUMPED!

Week 11

The boy went 10 - 3. 10 - 3?! And that was with picking Carolina to win! The big question of this column is now no longer “What’s gonna happen?” but rather “Can I out-pick my four-year-old son?” I went 7 - 6, by the way, which still takes home cash at the end of the day, and makes the wife hope I won’t publish her record (4 - 9). In the wake of an astounding NINE upsets against the spread, the NFL marches on in this strangest of seasons. On to the picks! (home teams in caps)

Bears +1.5 over DOLPHINS: As last week, picks were made in-house on Thursday night. I’m not writing this column during the work week. Sorry.

PITTSBURGH -7.5 over Oakland: For the same reason that New England had to blow out Pittsburgh last week, this week the Steelers will bring Oakland’s win streak to a screeching halt: because they’re too good a team yet not to bounce back big time from an ass whoopin’.

NY JETS -7 over Houston: Gary Kubiak’s wife has a dream Saturday night that she gives birth to a Satyr, and the dream-interpreters in the Texans’ front office who are in charge of Houston’s drafts inform Coach that it portends the beginning of the traditional late-season swan-dive for the Texans. And they never had a better opponent for it than the Jets, who look pretty good coming off a last-second OT win for the second week in a row.

Um...Coach? We've consulted the Sibylline Oracles. It's bad. The curse will not be broken until "an army walks across the Hellespont." Any ideas?

Baltimore -11 over CAROLINA: 11? That’s it? 11? I’ll give you 15, Panthers. (rubbing my hands in anticipation of attending Panthers at Browns next week)

We used to make the Carolinas happy! Now one of us is the third-string quarterback for the Browns and the other is on IR.

Washington +7 over TENNESSEE: Part of me is saying, “Come on, you gave Pittsburgh the old “bounce back” theory, and you’re not going to give it to Washington? You actually like the Skins,” while another part is saying, “Yeah, but it’s the Skins. Owners of the league’s worst defense. Only way they win this game is with lots and lots of turnovers.” And the way this season is going, that’s what’s gonna happen.

DALLAS -6 over Detroit: Can’t wait to see these two teams on Thanksgiving next week! Matthew Stafford is having a stellar year, completing 60% of his passes with a TD:INT ratio of 6:1. Too bad he’s not playing and the petulant Cowboys feel like playing now that there’s sure to be a big-time house-cleaning when Bill Cowher takes this thing over next year. (NOTE: With the passing of his wife, you can be sure that the man is going to give himself back to the 24/7 job he left in 2006. Wouldn’t you?)

This man could run out of fingers some day...

Green Bay -3 over MINNESOTA: ESPN’s least successful expert predictors are calling Minnesota for this one. Enough said. But can Aaron Rodgers and Co. cover…? On the other hand, this is probably the game where the Vikings players stage a blowout to get rid of the coach they quit on about a month ago and the Packers are coming off a bye.

Do you trust this man to run your offense?

CINCINNATI -5.5 over Buffalo: Only with Buffalo could we be talking about a “let down” after a two point win at home over the Detroit Lions.

Cleveland +1.5 over JAX: Take away a miraculous Hail Mary and a devastating fumble in field goal range in OT and these teams have the same record (4 - 5). Two plays are the difference between the Jaguars (5 - 4) and the Browns (3 - 6), but the Browns have finally come out of the hard part of the league’s toughest schedule (with games @TB, vs. KC, @BAL, @ATL, @PIT, @NO, vs. NE, and vs. NYJ—seven of ESPN’s top 11 teams) and are an improving team in Mangini’s second year at the helm. In the last meeting of these two teams, the Browns rushed for 214 yards…and that was in the year 1 BP (before Peyton).

KANSAS CITY -8 over Arizona: The Chiefs are not who we thought they were! Still, Jamaal Charles brings his 6 YPC to the Cards’ 28th-ranked rushing defense. I’ll take a week off from picking on Derek Anderson. It’s not his fault. He’s just too good to be a backup, but not good enough to be a starter. Like Kelly Holcomb.

Who doesn’t remember this game?

NEW ORLEANS -11.5 over Seattle: Am I not picking enough upsets this week? Maybe not, but the NFC West is an astounding -161 in net points this year, which means it’s hard to pick anyone but the Rams (a neat 7 - 2 against the spread). Saints need to keep pace with the Falcons, who travel to…

Atlanta -3 over ST LOUIS: My brain is screaming at me to stay away from St Louis this week. Vegas has finally figured them out. The spread is down. Three points is nothing. Get away! I just—can’t—stop myself. Wait…they’re playing who? The Super Bowl-bound Falcons? Ok brain. You win—this week.

Tampa Bay +3 over SAN FRANCISCO: The young Bucs take Josh Freeman and his nifty QB play to the bay: 12 TDs, 5 INTs and 60% completion. They need this win if they want to stay in the conversation with the Saints and Falcons. This is probably not the year for them, but it’s definitely not the year for San Francisco (3 - 6 overall, 4 - 5 against the spread, losing by an average of 4 points per game).

Indianapolis +4 over NEW ENGLAND: Because I have a hard time believing that the team with Peyton Manning can’t even come within 4 points of the team that the team with Colt McCoy utterly dominated just two weeks ago.

New York Giants +3 over PHILADELPHIA: Sorry to all you Eagles fans who have been clamoring about Vick as MVP of the NFL: these are not your mama’s Redskins, and the Giants have something to prove coming off a shocking wake-up call against the Cowboys last week. Let’s wait and see if Vick can put together anything resembling a season (or, you know, two games) of great performances like we saw last week before we bump him up to the top of the heap. The greats are playing in Gillette this Sunday.

(N.B. DeSean Jackson likened Vick’s receiving corps to “pit bulls” in a press conference this week. Oops.)

Denver +10 over SAN DIEGO: Look, I’m not saying Denver’s not terrible. I’m not saying Josh McDaniels’ Broncos stand a Pro Bowl-caliber Running Back’s chance in Denver of winning this game. But after scoring 49 points on the Chiefs last week, you have to expect this is going to be a high scoring affair and the team with the least turnovers wins by a possession.

Thank you, baby Jesus, for putting me behind Joe Thomas, Eric Steinbach, and Alex Mack. Amen.

Week 10

Turns out picking games against the spread is hard.

But easier if you’re 4. Yes, last week I was beaten by my 4-year-old son. But the weekend is finally here, so I’ll probably take him out front, put the ball in his hands, and tackle him in the yard. See how tough he is when I James Harrison him into the turf. Seriously, though, since the season has shaken out to the midpoint, we’ve seen Super Bowl favorites Dallas, Minnesota, Indianapolis and San Diego go a combined 13 - 20. And I defy you to name the prognosticator who picks the full slate of games against the spread and is willing to go on record with his picks. We were 6 - 7 last week, by the way, with one game ending at the line itself. On to Week 10… [UPDATE: Bill Simmons actually does this, and my son beat him too (Simmons went 6 - 6 - 1, just like me, but he reckons the push as a tie).]

ATLANTA -1 over Baltimore: Ok, I know this game happened already, so it’s not really “what’s gonna happen”, but the wife and I both picked the 17 - 1 at home Matt Ryan to beat the pretenders to the AFC North crown as the game was starting (didn’t you?).

INDIANAPOLIS -7 over Cincinnati: The Colts are coming off a close loss to a superior Eagles squad that’s starting to get healthy and making a surprising run at the division title. You have to go back to October of 2008 for the last time the Colts have lost consecutive games (not counting Weeks 16 and 17, when Manning and the rest of the starters usually take their annual Christmas Vacation). And the Bengals, well…October 2010. But let us pity the Bengals, who finish up their season this year @NYJ, vs. NO, @PIT, vs. CLE, vs. SD, and @BAL.

Houston +1.5 over JAX: Jack del Rio’s boys are somehow sitting at 4 - 4 at the halfway point of the season, in spite of not really doing anything all that well. Houston, on the other hand, has the 5th best offense and the worst defense in the league, and they check in at 4 - 4 as well. The only thing that makes this game relevant to the playoff hunt is the Colts’ uncharacteristic first-half struggles.

Tennessee -1.5 over MIAMI: My gut tells me that Miami can’t—they just can’t—lose at home this week after what happened a week ago in Baltimore. My gut is usually wrong. But my head has been right before, and my head wants to tell Channing Crowder’s head that whatever comes out of Ray Rice’s head is fair game to use as a weapon, right Channing?

Minnesota -1 over CHICAGO: Jay Cutler finds his stride just in time to avoid totally losing Chicago’s chance at the division…just as old man Brett begins his swan song.

BUFFALO -2.5 over Detroit: I know Detroit gets points here, but didn’t Buffalo have to win by a field goal anyway? Matthew Stafford trots out for introductions and then holds a clipboard for the rest of the game. Bad news for the Megatron.

NY Jets -3 over CLEVELAND: So far this year, the Browns have beaten the reigning division champions, the reigning Super Bowl champions, and the reigning league-best record team. None of them had a terrific run defense, and, even though Hillis bulldozed the Ravens all day long back in September, the Ravens’ D is, as we saw last night (and throughout the season), not what it used to be. Besides, so far I’ve been picking against Cleveland and they’ve been winning, so I’ll take the Browns victory over the correct pick all season long. Just don’t say the “P-word” unless they win on Sunday.

TAMPA BAY -7 over Carolina: Didn’t take long to find out about these two quarterbacks, did it? Josh Freeman throws TDs (10), Jimmy Clausen does not (1). The Panthers’ formerly great rushing tandem of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart is averaging under 4 yards per carry, while LeGarrette Blount is starting to come on. I’m thinking 14 points wouldn’t have been enough for the hapless Panthers. Can I pick this game twice?

Kansas City -1 over DENVER: Jamaal Charles is averaging 6.4 yards per carry this year. Jamaal Charles is averaging 6.4 yards per carry this year. I wrote that twice on purpose. On Sunday, Josh McDaniels crosses the field during pre-game warmups to see what a running back looks like, then returns to his sideline and marvels at Brady Quinn’s biceps—which are his consolation for trading away Peyton Hillis and two draft picks.

From the people of Northeast Ohio: Thanks again, Coach McDaniels.

St Louis +6 over SAN FRANCISCO: The 49ers have dusted off Heisman-winner Troy Smith, but the Rams have a QB of their own who’s continuing to show that he’s pretty special, has won 3 in a row against the spread, and still can’t get people to bet on him. You get my money, Sammie!

Seattle +3 over ARIZONA: Tune in Sunday for this exciting clash of NFC West contenders! With a combined net score of -119, will one of these teams be able to win, or will we be treated to a turnover extravaganza in the middle of which the NFL stops the game and demotes both teams to Canada?

...We'll be seeing a lot of this on Sunday.

Dallas +13.5 over NY GIANTS: There are so many reasons to take the Giants, possibly the best team in the NFC, at home here. Will Dallas have a pulse? That’s a lot of free points. Dallas is losing a lot, but only netting -9 per game.

New England +4.5 over PITTSBURGH: Pittsburgh's offensive line can only take so much, and it was already hard to keep Big Ben clean in the pocket while he hangs in there as long as anyone in the NFL. Tom Brady has one career loss against the Steelers.

WASHINGTON +3 over Philadelphia: I know, I know, the team that fielded Rex Grossman as the best chance to win is going to take it to the team that beat the Colts? Yep. And we’ll see why they said last summer that this was a transition year for Philly.

Week 9

I took a beating last week (5 - 13), but at least I’m in good company, because so did a certain Hall-of-Fame-to-be quarterback and the World Controllers, both of whom have apparently raised questions about entitlement in recent weeks. No such worries for me, as I’ve rarely been on top in this wacky season in which the NFL as a whole is showing more parity than usual (the Colts aren’t on their usual perfect-season-to-be-destroyed-when-they-go-on-vacation-for-the-month-of-December), which means the spreads are showing more upsets and fluctuation from one week to the next. Also like Congress. On to the picks…

BUFFALO +3 over Chicago: Jay “I’ve thrown 2 TDs and 6 INTs since starting the season with 5 TDs to 1 INT” Cutler takes his talents to Buffalo—er…Toronto—where the Bills, who have not lost a game against the spread in over a month, aim to show the Dandy from Vandy how a Harvard man can sling it in Canada. Unfortunately, with games against the Lions, Bengals, Vikings, and Browns, this is not Buffalo’s last chance to win a game this year, but I’ll take ‘em with the points.

HOUSTON +3 over San Diego: The inconsistent Texans bounce back from a tough loss in Indy as the inconsistent Chargers bounce back from a tough win at home last week against the good, tough, other team from Houston.

New Orleans -6.5 over CAROLINA: In a surprise development, a Notre Dame QB has failed to live up to expectations in Carolina. Is America’s iconic Catholic University, which gave us Joe Montana and Joe Theisman, losing its identity? Meanwhile, Carolina has firmly captured rights to this years Nats crown, and they’re going to need a lot more than 6.5.

MINNESOTA -8 over Arizona: Derek Anderson is starting again. Enough said.

Don't let it get to you, DA. It's not like you're throwing to the best receiver in the NFL or anything.

ATLANTA -8.5 over Tampa Bay: While I respect what Josh Freeman and Raheem Morris (who is younger than at least one member of his defensive secondary) are doing in Tampa Bay, teams have had plenty of time to game plan against the young QB and they’re not in Tampa this week, as they travel to play the real “best team in the NFC”.

DETROIT +4 over NY Jets: Ndamukong Suh is the real deal. Just ask Santana Moss.

Miami +5.5 over BALTIMORE: With Joe Flacco struggling, Baltimore refuses to commit to its ground game and the talking heads are talking more about Harbaugh’s job than abut Eric Mangini’s. You know that has to be a bad sign.

New England -4.5 over CLEVELAND: Speaking of Eric Mangini. This is classic Anakin versus Obi Wan, except the lowdown, dirty cheater is the mentor here. Bill Simmons has this to say: "Bend but don't break on defense, spread the ball around on offense, get lucky with turnovers, take advantage of dumb coaching decisions by the other team, don't beat yourself with stupid penalties, get consistently good contributions from a loaded rookie class AND random castoffs from other teams, keep chugging along even as people are rightfully picking you apart and pointing to hard-core reasons why this can't continue ... ladies and gentlemen, the—"

—New England Patriots. He might as easily have said the Browns. Tom Brady wins.

SEATTLE +7 over NY Giants: The Giants are one of the top two or three teams in the NFC—with a great running game! The Seahawks are 3 - 0 at home against the spread, and ready to answer the bell after a beat-down at the hands of the Raiders last week.

Kansas City -2.5 over OAKLAND: Can Oakland really continue to score this many points (59 two weeks ago, 33 last week)?

Scary FACTOID: In the last two weeks, they’ve outscored opponents 92 - 17.

Scary FACTOID 2: before that they lost to the 49ers… Still, the Raiders, who boast the league's 4th-best scoring offense (2nd-ranked in rushing) and 15th-best defense in points allowed could very well win. I’m just not betting on ‘em yet. Next week maybe.

Indianapolis +3 over PHILADELPHIA: Michael Vick is back! So is Peyton Manning, and, more importantly, the Colts’ D (last week the Texans’ longest scoring drive was just barely longer than the Colts’ shortest one as the Colts won the TOP battle 36:25 to 23:35).

GREEN BAY -7.5 over Dallas: Aaron Rodgers’ Packers probably don’t agree with Roy Williams’ recent analysis, as the Cowboys bring their league-worst record against the spread into the frigid field at Green Bay.

Pittsburgh -5 over CINCINNATI: Good job winning the division last year, Cincy. Seriously. Now get back to the AFC North basement. Cheers! But the real storyline for this game is, is James Harrison going to be able to fill up his car with gas and make it to the game after getting fined (again) the working man’s equivalent to a quarter-pounder with cheese (which is, apparently, a lot of money for Mr. Harrison).