Denver +7 over BALTIMORE: Hmmm...let’s see. What’s 1,419 (Kyle Orton’s passing yards) times four (12 out of 16 games left)? Oh yeah, 5,676. Wait, did I say Kyle Orton? That Kyle Orton? Really? It gets better: the Broncos are 2 - 2, and Moreno was idle during practice today. Can you say 35+ pass attempts? Wait, what? You mean fantasy football heroes don’t translate to automatic wins? And it’s the other team that has the clutch QB that just led a game-winning TD drive to end the game last week against the league-best Tasmanian Devils’ D? Too bad Denver’s getting more points than the Ravens have won by all year.
BUFFALO even over Jax: Sorry, good people of the Florida panhandle. Not only is Kyle Orton making the mile high hee-haws forget the name of your beloved Tim Tebow (don’t worry: he’ll be governor of Florida someday), but you just poured out more emotion over a Jaguars game than you have since the days when we thought Byron Leftwich and David Garrard were competitors for a starting quarterback job. I know, I know: I’m picking against a team. But hey, did anyone ever think a Jack del Rio-coached team would be this bad?
INDIANAPOLIS -7 over Kansas City: Sorry Cinderella, the clock is striking midnight and the pissed off Colts are looking to beat someone like a little stepsister. In the immortal words of Bill Simmons: don’t try to be the genius who spots the Colts’ demise before everyone else. The Colts will let us know when they’re done.
St Louis +3 over DETROIT: Alright here it is: the Cowardly Lions (CREDIT: Gregg Easterbrook) last week, trailing 14-point favorite Green Bay by two points—two points!—late in the fourth quarter, looking at 4th and 10 on the Green Bay 39, punted. This pissed me off extra, because the Browns had just given their best Bella Swan impression the week before at Baltimore. The difference: the Lions are at home, where they can actually win games. What? No Matthew Stafford? And the Bradford led Rams are riding a two-game win streak into an empty Ford Field? And they get points? Ok. Sign me up.
CLEVELAND +3 over Atlanta: Look, go ahead and say it: homer pick. But let me tell you why I’m picking the Browns for the first time all year when they’re playing what should be the toughest team they’ve played all year. Because they’ve lost three games by a combined twelve points and they’re playing at home, where you know there’s going to be a sonic boom coming out of the Dawg Pound every time Brady Quinn 2.0 swings through DBs trying to arm-tackle like a wrecking ball through...anything built in America since World War II (he injured two members of the Bengals secondary last week, just because they wanted to tackle him and he wanted to keep running). Nothing’s ever going to make The Fumble go away, but what the hell was Josh McDaniels thinking? The Browns’ secondary is their weakest link, but Carson Palmer’s 371 yards and 2 TDs went unnoticed by reality footballers.
Tampa Bay +6.5 over CINCINNATI: It’s not that I don’t think Cincinnati is going to get it together and win this game. I do. It’s just that Tampa Bay’s only giving up 20 points a game and Cincy has yet to exceed that number (garbage time against New England doesn’t count).
CAROLINA -1 over Chicago: I told you! I told you! Buzzards! Jay Cutler! Seriously, though, I hope I didn’t jinx him. Peppers’ll be pumped to return to Carolina, but it’s the Panthers D-line that’ll be tearing through those turnstiles in front of the fresh meat Lovie Smith puts under center on Sunday. But this is the last time I pick Carolina this year. Seriously.
Green Bay -2.5 over WASHINGTON: Wow, give up 26 to the lowly Lions and nobody wants to bet on you anymore. To be fair, Green Bay was spotted a ridiculous, New England Patriots circa 2007-esque 14 points. But I just don’t see the ghost of Donovan McNabb outrunning The Animal (who shows every indication of living up to his Hall of Fame pedigree). Besides, it’s right about time for the former Eagle’s annual injury. (N.B. Whatsgonnahappen hopes all NFL players make it out of this week safe and sound.)
NYGiants +3 over HOUSTON: Good news? Cushing’s back. Bad news? Eli Manning’s 7th-ranked offense is licking its chops to play the league’s last-ranked defense. The kicker, Giants D tallied 9 sacks...in the first half last week. And Schaub likes to chuck it.
New Orleans -6.5 over ARIZONA: Two words: Derek Anderson. Four more: I told you so. Six more: Can Kurt Warner come back now? Think Ken Whisenhunt is wishing he’d handled the Matt Leinart situation differently yet? I really wish DA could have been better. Or worse. Too good to be a backup + not good enough to be a starter = coach killer.
San Diego -6 over OAKLAND: September being over the San Diego Super Chargers are allowed to win twelve in a row. But no more after that.
Tennessee +7 over DALLAS: I know, I know, Dallas beat the vaunted Houston Texans, in Houston, by two touchdowns last week. But now they have to beat the Oilers, and this team just gives itself too many distractions. And Tennessee has gone W - L - W - L … and Vegas spots 'em a touchdown. I'll sleep easy tonight on this one.
SAN FRANCISCO -3 over Philadelphia: Kevin Kolb sure looked a lot better back in July. Meanwhile Philly travels 3,000 miles to play a football game at 10:00 in the morning (their time).
Minnesota +4 over NY JETS: Randy Moss + Brett Favre = Super Bowl. Wait? It’s 2010?? Aw, shucks. They’re a combined 73 years old and with 23 NFL seasons between them, you can look up their stats on NFL.com under the “Historical Players” category. Still, it's enough to beat the HBO Jets.
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